Q1 2026 Lakes Region Market Report
What the Numbers Are Saying So Far
A couple of notes before we start: This report covers single-family home sales in Belknap and Carroll Counties, which together represent the core of our Lakes Region and North Country market. Condominiums, multi-families, land, and commercial properties are excluded. The Keys to the Lake team deals primarily in single-family homes, and the data we’re sharing reflects that. Q1 2026 data in this report runs through February 12, 2026; it is a partial quarter and should be read as an early signal, not a full picture. We’ll update with complete Q1 data once the quarter closes, but people are asking…often, so we’re happy to share what we know. And, finally, while we love data and keep our fingers on the pulse, we’re not statisticians or housing economists. So we’re sharing sources below so you can check our work. And all local data is we pulled from PrimeMLS on March 7, 2026.
Phew, now, with all of that said, there is enough here to tell you something real. So let’s get into it.
Where We Came In: Q4 2025
The fourth quarter of 2025 is fully closed and the data is clean. Across Belknap and Carroll Counties combined, 213 single-family homes closed in Q4 2025. The median list price was $465,000; Belknap County came in at $462,500 and Carroll County at $465,000 — nearly identical.
The statewide 2025 median for single-family homes was $535,000, a 3.9% increase over 2024 and the smallest annual price increase New Hampshire has seen in a decade. (Source: New Hampshire REALTORS / PrimeMLS, as reported January 2026) Good news for buyers? Maybe; we’ll unpack what it means below.
Our two-county median sitting below the statewide median tells you something worth knowing: the Lakes Region and North Country still offer relative value compared to the southern tier of the state, where Rockingham County’s median hit $670,000 in 2025. That gap matters for out-of-state buyers doing initial research.
How Fast Things Moved
This is where Q4 2025 tells its most interesting story.
Of the 213 single-family closings in Belknap and Carroll Counties, 48% went under contract within seven days of listing. 62% were under contract within 14 days. 77% sold within 30 days. The average days on market across all 213 sales was 19.3 days.
Sit with that for a moment. Nearly half of the homes that came to market in Q4 2025 were gone in a week. A week.
This is a sellers’ market. It has been a sellers’ market. And while there are signs of softening nationally, these numbers tell you that well-priced, well-located properties in this region are not sitting.
The caveat worth noting: the $300K-$500K range, which accounted for 43% of all Q4 closings (91 of 213 sales), moved at an average of 16.1 days on market. Properties priced $750,000 and above averaged 21.3 days. The upper end is selling. It’s just taking slightly more time and, in some cases, more patience.
What Sold and What Sat
The volume story in Q4 2025 was solidly in the $300K-$500K band. That’s where buyers and sellers found each other most reliably. Above that range, the market gets quieter and more selective.
Properties that sat longest in Q4 shared recognizable patterns. Several were priced above $1 million with days on market over 70 days, including properties in Meredith, Gilford, and Wakefield. A handful of Carroll County properties in the $500K-$875K range also stretched well past 30 days. This isn’t a sign of a broken market; it’s a sign of buyers doing more math in 2025 than they did in 2022. At higher price points and higher carrying costs, they have the time and reason to.
Properties that moved fastest were well-priced relative to condition and location, didn’t require buyers to take on significant work immediately, and came to market clean.
This formula hasn’t changed. It has just become less forgiving.
Q1 2026: An Early Read
Twenty-nine single-family homes closed in Belknap and Carroll Counties between January 1 and February 12, 2026. That is a small sample, and we want to be clear about that. Conclusions drawn from 29 transactions should be held lightly. Like with a bucket of salt.
With that caveat in place, here’s what they show.
The median list price was $575,000, higher than Q4 2025’s $465,000. Belknap came in at $535,000 and Carroll at $585,000. Some of that elevation reflects the property mix: the early weeks of 2026 included several significant sales, including a Gilford property on Belknap Point Road at $2,750,000 and a Laconia lakefront property at $1,300,000. Those transactions pull the median upward.
More telling than the median: the average days on market in Q1 2026 is 7.8 days. 62% of those 29 sales went under contract within 7 days. The market’s opening weeks of 2026 have been fast.
For our take on part of that story, ICYMI:
The Rate Environment: Finally a Tailwind
Mortgage rates matter here, and for the first time in two years, they are moving in buyers’ favor.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.00% for the week ending March 5, 2026, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s down from 6.63% at the same time in 2025, a drop of 63 basis points year over year. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 5.43%. (Source: Freddie Mac PMMS, March 5, 2026)
Bankrate’s national average has been hovering in the 6.04-6.07% range in early March, with rates averaging 6.18% across January and February 2026. (Source: Bankrate, March 2-4, 2026)
To put that in concrete terms: on a $465,000 mortgage, the difference between 7% (roughly where rates were in early 2025) and 6% is approximately $310 per month. Over a year, that’s nearly $3,700. Over five years, it adds up to something that meaningfully changes what buyers can absorb.
Statewide, buyers are responding. Pending sales across New Hampshire were up 9.9% year over year in January 2026 and 12.3% in February 2026. (Source: New Hampshire REALTORS / PrimeMLS, ShowingTime Plus, February 2026)
That is not a coincidence. Buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines calculating whether to wait for better rates are beginning to move.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets March 17-18. With unemployment ticking up to 4.4% in February 2026 and inflation data still being watched, there is open speculation about further rate cuts later in the year. Bankrate projects the 2026 annual average around 6.1%, with potential to reach 5.7% if conditions allow. (Source: Bankrate, March 2026; CBS News, March 6, 2026)
What We Don’t Know Yet
We want to name what this analysis cannot tell you, because honesty about data limits is part of what makes data useful.
We don’t have sold price in this dataset, only list price. The statewide sale-to-list ratio for New Hampshire in January 2026 was 98.4%, down from 99.2% a year prior, meaning buyers have slightly more negotiating room than they did last year. (Source: Redfin, January 2026) Whether that holds in our two-county market specifically, we’ll know more clearly once we have complete Q1 data.
We also don’t yet know how the spring market will materialize in terms of new listing volume. The early inventory signals statewide are modest but improving: New Hampshire had 1,426 active single-family listings in January 2026, up 9.4% year over year, and 1,291 in February 2026, up 6.5%. (Source: NH REALTORS / PrimeMLS, ShowingTime Plus) More listings are coming to market.
Anecdotally, we’ve been seeing a couple notes each week from agents sharing that they have a property coming to market in the next month or so and attempting to gauge early interest. What the actual pace looks like into March and April will shape what spring looks like here.
Q2 Forecast: What Our Guts Are Telling Us
Spring 2026 is setting up to be genuinely more active than spring 2025. The rate environment is the main driver. Buyers who were priced out or patience-strained at 7% are re-entering the market at 6%, and the pending sales data suggests that’s already happening.
What we don’t expect is a return to 2021-2022 dynamics. The affordability ceiling is real. New Hampshire’s affordability index ended 2025 at 59, meaning the median-income household cannot comfortably afford the median-priced home here. That is not a temporary condition.
What we do expect for spring 2026: well-priced properties in the $350K-$600K range moving quickly, multiple-offer situations on well-presented homes in desirable towns, more listings coming to market through March and April as sellers who have been waiting on rates see buyers reactivating, and continued patience required at the upper end of the market, particularly for properties that need work or are priced to peak-year expectations.
The sellers who will do well this spring are the ones who price to this market with clear eyes. The sellers who will struggle are the ones who price to the market they wish still existed.
What This Means If You’re Buying
The rate window is real. Six percent is not exciting, but it is meaningfully better than where we were twelve months ago, and the spring market will bring more competition alongside more inventory. Buyers who are prepared — pre-approved, clear on their priorities, and working with someone who knows this region deeply — are better positioned than they’ve been in a while.
If you’ve been researching and waiting, this is worth a conversation.
What This Means If You’re Selling
Price to today’s market, not the one from two years ago. The data shows that well-priced properties are still moving in days. The market hasn’t gone soft. It has gone honest. There’s a difference.
If you’ve been wondering whether this spring is the right time, the answer is probably yes — with the right preparation and the right number on the listing.
Questions Worth Sitting With
If you’re thinking about buying: What does your monthly payment actually look like at current rates, and does it fit your life here year-round, not just in July?
If you’re thinking about selling: Do you know what your home is worth in this market specifically, not what your neighbor’s sold for in 2022?
If you’re not sure yet: That’s okay. That’s actually where most good decisions start. We’re happy to be a resource before you need to decide anything.
Here’s to clear eyes and good timing.
🏔️ Jenn & Andrea, Keys to the Lakes
